Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time,Methods and Disciplines

This paper examines how significance inflation has varied across time, methods and disciplines. Leveraging a unique data set of impact evaluations on 20 kinds of development programmes, I find that results from randomized controlled trials exhibit less significance inflation than results from studies using other methods. Further, randomized controlled trials have exhibited less significance inflation over time, but quasi‐experimental studies have not. There is no robust difference between results from researchers affiliated with economics departments and those from researchers affiliated with other predominantly health‐related departments. Overall, the biases found appear much smaller than those previously observed in other social sciences.     

Matte matters: when matte packaging increases perceptions of food naturalness

Matte surfaces, that is, those that are dull or lusterless not glossy and shiny, are a current trend in packaging. But does packaging surface affect what consumers think about the product inside it? We focus on consumers’ perception of packaged food products at the point of sale. Using three experiments, we show that food in matte packaging can be perceived as more natural. Notably, the effect of matte packaging only holds for rather artificial products. When matte packaging increases perceptions of product naturalness, consumers also expect the product to be tastier and are more likely to buy it.

     

The virtuous circle of human resource investments: A precrisis and postcrisis analysis

We propose a dynamic model of positive feedback between human resource (HR) investments and companies' economic performance. The model assumes that HR investment increases profitability through labor productivity and, in turn, profitability improves HR investment through organizational slack. Based on data from a sample of 2,497 industrial companies over a 7‐year period (2005–2011), longitudinal analysis corroborates the existence of a two‐way relationship between HR investment and profitability over time. However, the emergence of an economic crisis weakens this feedback, identifying the effect of organizational slack on HR investment as the weakest causal chain link. In a postcrisis period, HR investment is not such a high priority for managers.     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as to the study of monetary policy implications. In turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross-sectional (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on US Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

Epistemic habits: primary school teachers’ development of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) in a design-based research project

Generalist primary school teachers often have little or no training in school subjects such as science and technology. Not surprisingly, several studies show that they often experience difficulties when teaching these subjects, in fact some primary teachers even avoid teaching them. The over all aim of this study is to contribute to new theoretical and methodological tools for the study of how teachers develop knowledge for teaching, i.e. pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). And based on this, elaborate on implications for the professional development of primary school teachers. The teachers in the study participated in a design-based research project concerning technology education in Grade 1. We were especially interested in whether the teachers displayed any habits that contributed to the development of their personal PCK. We found three significant patterns in how the teachers, together with the researcher, developed knowledge of how to teach a specific topic in technology. We argue that these patterns tell us something about the teachers’ epistemic habits in relation to the teaching of technology. The existence of these habits could help to explain how teachers with little or no experience of teaching a subject can develop relevant PCK.     

The erosion of personal norms and cognitive dissonance

In this article, we study how personal norms and behaviour interact and evolve when agents try to reduce cognitive dissonance, and how this dynamic relates to Nash equilibrium. We find that in long run, agents play, and norms prescribe, Nash equilibrium in material payoffs (in the absence of norms). Our model captures two main facts: (i) norms erode along the play of the game; (ii) the erosion of norms depends on the set of possible economic choices, so that the policy maker can potentially influence them.